2009 ELECTION: THE DA’S RESULTS

The 2009 Election has come and gone and, now that the results are in, it is possible to gauge how well the DA did and how its results compare to those of the other political parties.

What follows is a brief overview of the DA’s performance.

THE REAL ANC TODAY
Volume 2
Issue 2

THE 2009 NATIONAL AND PROVINCIAL ELECTIONS

AN ANALYSIS OF THE DA’S PERFORMANCE

OVERVIEW

(The following overview is based on the attached document, which should be read for a more complete picture.)

1. THE NATIONAL BALLOT:

1.1. DA GROWTH:

• The DA won a total of 2 945 829 votes or 16.66%, which translates into 67 seats in the National Assembly. It will be allocated another 10 Members to the National Council of Provinces for a total of 77 Members of Parliament.
• The DA grew by 34.7% (1 014 628 votes; 4.29 percentage points and 17 seats).
• This is the third election in a row the DA has grown. It is the only party to have done this.
• The DA is more than double the size of the next biggest opposition party: 9.24 percentage points, 1.6 million votes, or 37 seats bigger.
• The DA’s growth, of over 1 million votes, is bigger than that of any other party.

• The DA captured 76% (7 581 votes) of the 9 857 votes cast overseas:

- ACDP: 184 votes (1.87%)
- ANC: 673 votes (6.83%)
- CDA: 23 votes (0.23%)
- COPE: 918 votes (9.31%)
- DA: 7 581 votes (76.91%)
- ID: 136 votes (1.38%)
- PAC: 13 votes (0.13%)
- UDM: 20 votes (0.20%)
- FF+: 270 votes (2.74%)
- Total: 9 857 votes cast

1.2. COMPARISON:

• The DA was the only party to grow in the National Assembly (leaving aside COPE and the APC, which both started from a 0% base). Every other party represented lost support:

- ACDP: down by 0.79 percentage points (from 1.60 to 0.81)
- ANC: down by 3.78 (from 69.68 to 65.90)
- AZAPO: down by 0.05 (from 0.27 to 0.22)
- ID: down by 0.81 (from 1.73 to 0.92)
- IFP: down by 2.42 (from 6.97 to 4.55)
- MF: down by 0.10 (from 0.35 to 0.25)
- PAC: down by 0.46 (from 0.73 to 0.27)
- UCDP: down by 0.38 (from 0.75 to 0.38)
- UDM: down by 1.43 (from 2.28 to 0.85)
- FF+: down by 0.06 (from 0.89 to 0.83)

1.3. 10 YEAR COMPARISON:

(In 2000 the Democratic Party merged with the New National Party and the Federal Alliance to form the Democratic Alliance. In 2003 a small faction of NNP members crossed the floor back into the NNP, and later merged that party with the ANC.)

• Since 1999 the DP/DA has grown by 1 418 492 votes and 7.1 percentage points, more than any other party.
• In 2004 the DA grew by 403 864 votes (26.4%) and, in 2009, by 1 014 628 votes (34.7%).

2. THE PROVINCIAL BALLOT:

2.1. DA GROWTH:

• The DA grew in eight out of nine provinces, increasing the total number of DA seats in provincial legislatures from 51 in 2004, to 65 in 2009. It is represented by at least two members in every legislature:

- Eastern Cape: Grew by 37.6% or 61 525 votes, to 10.0%
- Free State: Grew by 39.8% or 34 130 votes, to 11.6%
- Gauteng: Grew by 28.3% or 200 535 votes, to 21.9%
- KwaZulu-Natal: Grew by 39.3% or 89 702 votes, to 9.1%
- Mpumalanga: Grew by 26.0% or 20 085 votes, to 7.5%
- North West: Grew by 36.7% or 23 803 votes, to 8.2%
- Northern Cape: Grew by 44.0% or 15 520 votes, to 12.6%
- Western Cape: Grew by 138.3% or 587 736 votes, 51.5%

2.2. THE WESTERN CAPE:

• The DA won an outright majority (51.5%) on the Western Cape provincial ballot and a majority in the legislature (22 out of the 42 seats).
• Its growth in this province has been significant, not just in the 2009 election but in the 2004 election that preceded it.
• In 2004 the DA grew by 124% or 235 649 votes to 27.1%, in 2009 it exceeded even that, growing by 138% or 587 736 votes and capturing in excess of 1 million votes in the province.

2.3. TEN YEAR COMPARISON:

• In the past three elections, the number of seats the DP/DA has won in provincial legislatures has systematically increased, from 35 in 1999, to 51 in 2004, to 65 in 2009.